15 Takes: The NBA's Spectacular Rookie Class
15 Takes: The NBA's Spectacular Rookie Class
NBA Substack writers on the good, the bad, and the unprecedented
Get this: The NBA’s 20-year-old generational prospect is posting epic highlights and eye-popping numbers on a nightly basis — and yet is far from assured of winning Rookie of the Year. Until recently, Victor Wembanyama trailed Chet Holmgren on most boards, and the ROY race is still up for grabs.
Multiple NBA freshmen are contributing to winning teams. Others are making a huge impact on defense.
It really is a unique rookie class.
So as the NBA universe gathers for this weekend’s action — including Friday night’s Rising Stars Challenge — we brought together 15 of the finest NBA voices from across Substack to give their takes on the rooks.
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Two takes on The Extraterrestrial
| Victor Wembanyama entered the NBA with unfathomable hype, yet he has somehow exceeded expectations. Even after hitting a brief rookie wall earlier this month, he has averaged 20.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game despite a minutes restriction.
The Parisian phenom has turned heads with step-back 3s, self-alley-oops, and a filthy Shammgod, and he has used his Slenderman appendages to toss his name into the Defensive Player of the Year discussion. The San Antonio Spurs have been horrendous, but watching him churn out historic stat lines on a near-nightly basis has made them palatable.
I am summoning a prayer circle so Wemby doesn't win ROTY. The last ROTY winner who went on to win an MVP was Derrick Rose in 2009. Fifteen years is a big-enough sample size to awaken my irrational sports-superstition brain center. I’d rather Wemby lose ROTY and maintain his positive basketball karma and go on to win five MVPs later instead.
Sting like a Hornet
| Swooping and snarling, Brandon Miller already acts like a two-way star (check his February numbers!). Sure, we'd love to see him trade a couple of middies for layups. But Miller pairs a silky shot with a burning desire to win. How many other rookies scream at veteran teammates to get back in transition?
Miller is putting up one of the best rookie 3-point shooting seasons of all time, yet he’s not afraid to get grimy. He oozes over picks, smacks weak layups into yesteryear, and takes charges like a 6’9” Kyle Lowry. The Hornets have found their future.
Let’s talk about Scoot
| Scoot Henderson's debut for the Blazers hasn't gone according to plan: He's averaging just 12.9 ppg on 37.5% shooting with an abysmal -11.1 plus/minus per 100. According to my WAR metric, Scoot has been the NBA's LVP and is on pace for the worst modern rookie season by a top-5 pick.
However, we must remember Henderson just turned 20. A couple of other recent rookies with a similar pedigree were nearly as bad at the same age — Brandon Ingram and De'Aaron Fox — and both turned into very good players. So there's hope yet for Scoot.
With Blazers coach Chauncey Billups declaring Scoot Henderson the permanent starter for the final 28 games of the season, how he grows into that role will be the most important thing to watch after the break. How will he and Anfernee Simons navigate playing on and off the ball when they share the court? How quickly will Henderson adjust to playing against the other team’s starters instead of their bench?
It’s going to be time to find all of that out.
“Everything that I believe in, he’s that,” Billups said. “He’s competitive, he’s a good teammate, he cares, he’s trying to get better. I wanted him to earn everything, and he’s doing just that. I’m proud of him.”
Brace for impact … from rookies!
| You remember, in the early days of advanced stats, rookies almost never showed up as elite. Now elite defensive performers in their 30s are scarce!
Right now rookies Victor Wembanyama, Toumani Camara, Chet Holmgren, and Ausar Thompson all have better defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) than Kawhi, LeBron, KD, or Brook Lopez.
What that means, to me, is that more than ever this game is about movement.
Uncharted Chet
| Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.7 ppg for the OKC Thunder, with an effective field goal percentage of 60.6%.
How many players have finished their rookie campaign with a scoring average of 15 or more ppg and an effective field goal percentage of 60% or higher? Zero.
Lively development
| I have not officially voted on NBA year-end awards since April 2017, but I do think a lot about Wemby vs. Chet and how the Rookie of the Year vote should go.
In the interim: Major props to Dereck Lively II. He played sparingly in his lone collegiate season at Duke and yet instantly became the Mavericks' third-most important player as a rookie ... pretty much starting Opening Night when he outdueled Wemby in San Antonio. He's the Mavericks' center of the future but also became their center of the present faster than anyone imagined.
In Dallas' ever-present quest to build a team around Luka Dončić that No. 77 can believe in, Lively's development has been a huge (and badly needed) surprise.
Just wanted to make sure someone said all that before we resume Wemby vs. Chet deliberations.
Amen corner
| Don’t look now, but Rockets coach Ime Udoka is giving Amen Thompson a chance. After getting only 16 minutes per game, Thompson is up to 30 minutes per contest in February and rewarding Udoka’s faith with 12 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game, while hitting 60% from the field.
The explosive 21-year-old has All-Star potential — now he just needs to find a jump shot.
Podz racing ahead
| I love Brandin Podziemski. Not just because he fits one of my favorite archetypes — the crafty lefty — but because he's already an actually good version of that archetype. The Warriors have been 10.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and when you watch him, it's easy to see why. The dude is a smooth shooter and passer and a surprisingly good rebounder.
He knows how to play, and on his specific team, that's half the battle.
Bet on Black
| The Magic’s Anthony Black is one of the more overlooked members of his draft class. He’s not putting up big numbers, but he’s played a lot and played well. Black has started in 30 of his 50 games played. He’s been good defensively. His shot needs work, but he’s got encouraging 49/37 splits.
In time, Black will be a solid starting point guard.
Cason born ready
| Oklahoma City’s “other” rookie, Cason Wallace, is playing wonderful basketball. His eFG% of 62.5 leads guards — not just rookies, all guards — who have logged over 1,000 minutes. Wallace is progressing towards inhabiting the “guard stopper” role in future seasons, too, showcasing high-level defensive instincts already.
The former Kentucky Wildcat deserves massive props for his role in OKC’s stunning rise.
Action Jackson
| I was really high on GG Jackson last year and would’ve taken him in the top five if it I were selecting for an NBA team. He started his freshman season at 17 years old and was productive, although inefficient, in a tough SEC.
Immaturity concerns played a role in him falling to No. 45 in June’s draft, but Jackson has given the injury-plagued Grizzlies lottery-level production since being called up from the Memphis Hustle.
Let me be your Camara
| Toumani Camara is making deflections, hustling, and scrapping his way up Chauncey Billups' rotation. The Belgian rook has played in 53 of Portland's 54 games — starting 33 — thanks to a team-leading Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +2.4, good enough for 20th in the NBA and second among rookies (first among rookies from this planet).
Guess who Stephen Curry's primary defender was when his NBA-record 3-point streak ended at 268 games in December?
Houston’s other rookie was a steal
| Cam Whitmore was supposed to be a top-10 pick, as high as a top-5 pick, but he ended up at No. 20. It was because of either bad medical info or bad interviews. Whether he had a chip on his shoulder or not, he’s sixth in points per game by a rookie, which usually translates to making an All-Rookie Team.
Thanks, Royce, and to everyone else who participated! Love seeing so many different views on this wild, wonderful rookie class.
And if anyone’s interested, I went much, much longer on Brandon Miller here:
https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/brandon-miller-will-be-a-winner-dont
I stand by my Wemby prayer circle take...👀