12 Takes on the High Stakes of the NBA Playoffs
NBA Substack on who has the most to win — and lose
We asked 12 leading NBA voices on Substack:
NBA playoffs: The stakes are highest for ...
Check out their answers and subscribe!
Marc Stein | The Stein Line
While conceding that I’m probably not answering the question correctly and perhaps should be focusing on James Dolan announcing to the world in January that this a championship-or-bust spring for the Knicks — or fixating on Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs vs. Playoff Inexperience conundrum — I find myself thinking a lot about LeBron James’ future.
The Lakers realistically have little shot in their Round 1 series against Houston without the injured Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, so it’s not like LeBron is expected to magically overcome their absences. Nor is there something to prove legacy-wise at this point. Yet there has never been more uncertainty about what happens next for King James than there is going into this series.
The leaguewide presumption is that the 41-year-old wants to play another season ... but where? Is there a pathway to stay with the Lakers when parting company would give the purple and gold much-needed flexibility to build a more well-rounded roster? Warriors, Cavaliers, Knicks, Nuggets ... do any of those destinations make legitimate sense when it is also widely presumed that LeBron does not want to leave Tinseltown? Or could this (gasp) actually be the last time we see him on the playoffs stage?
This much we know: We’ll finally starting inching closer to getting some answers when this Lakers season is over.
Mark Whicker | The Morning After
Most to lose: Celtics. They don’t want just one ring in the Tatum-Brown-Queta era.
2nd most to lose: Rockets. If they can’t beat the disabled Lakers, why pay attention?
Most to gain: Nuggets. Nobody expects them to beat both OKC and the Spurs.
Something to eye: Detroit’s 3-point shooting. If it arrives, Pistons can win the East.
Ben Golliver | Ben Golliver
The stakes are highest for … Victor Wembanyama.
I don’t see a plausible path to a fifth ring for LeBron James or a first for an injured Luka Dončić. Meanwhile, a second ring for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, or Jayson Tatum wouldn’t boost them that much historically.
Wemby, however, has a rare chance to join legends Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, and Tim Duncan as an early-twenties NBA champion. If the thrilling Spurs win it all, the 22-year-old French phenom would claim his first Larry O’Brien Trophy well ahead of Michael Jordan (age 28), LeBron James (27), and Stephen Curry (27). What better way to launch a GOAT candidacy?
Katie Heindl | BASKETBALL FEELINGS
For the Cavs these playoffs feel existential. Perhaps a better framing: This group will decide whether it stays haunted or performs a group exorcism.
Some might say the Spurs and Wembanyama, but they get to exist in the bucolic realm of zero expectations and high skill. Then there’s the Pistons, the “prove it” team of this postseason.
Ultimately I’m picking OKC — and SGA. Repeating is always arduous, but this is a team that went from darling to target so fast, SGA included, that the eagerness to knock them out is palpable.
This was genuinely tough to narrow down; it’s good to have so many stakes!
Yossi Gozlan | Third Apron
The Eastern Conference was regarded as wide open thanks to injuries to Damian Lillard, Tyrese Haliburton, and Jayson Tatum. This created a ton of pressure for the remaining healthy teams in the East. We’re already bracing for potential changes in Orlando after falling below the lofty expectations the Magic raised by trading for Desmond Bane. The Knicks could also be looking to modify their roster if they can’t get back to the East Finals.
But perhaps no team has as much pressure on them as the Cavaliers. It feels like anything short of a Finals appearance could result in a major shakeup. It could be in either direction: Do they consider offering Evan Mobley for a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo? Or does Donovan Mitchell ask for a trade? There’s too much at stake after trading Darius Garland for 36-year-old James Harden.
Jake Fischer | The People’s Insider | Contributor to The Stein Line
I hate to pose as any grim reaper, but there are just too many good teams with high expectations to the point some club, maybe more, is inevitably going to find themselves at home after Round One and face some form of reckoning — whether that be changes to the roster, coach or front office.
The loser of Denver-Minneapolis, for example, very much entered this season with eyes on the title, let alone another conference finals trip. The same goes for the Lakers and Rockets. A lot of league personnel think Atlanta can topple New York.
What then?
Elio Martínez | 82 partidos
No matter how many angles I look at this from, I can’t see a bigger potential drama than an early exit (first or second round) for the Knicks.
On the positive side: Sure, if the Thunder win a second straight NBA title, it would elevate them because of their historic two-year dominance; if Wembanyama won with the Spurs, it would raise his global stature; for Boston, it would be a legendary season …
But any team or player has an excuse or a reason to survive not winning in 2026. Except for NY, obviously.
Mike Shearer | Basketball Poetry
The NBA desperately needs a fantastic playoffs for the Association’s own sake.
The Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups gambling scandals. The still-lingering Kawhi/Ballmer/Aspiration stench. The endless complaints about tanking and the 65-game rule. An unprecedented barrage of injuries. Unceasing debate about whether the league is thriving or dying.
Despite an excellent on-court product, the NBA has been almost completely overshadowed by one publicity crisis after another. You know how best to remind people that this sport deserves love and attention? By playing some good friggin’ basketball.
The play-in has been a fantastic start. Here’s hoping for two more months like this.
Aaron Bollwinkel | Live. Breathe. Ball.
I’m excited for these playoffs for two reasons:
The postseason signals the end of the droning on about the problem de jour. In this case, I won’t have to hear about tanking (at least until the draft lottery) — thank you to whomever you constitute as God.
Wemby, SGA, and Jokić are looking to stake their claim as the game’s best, with the latter two inserting themselves into conversations that cast them amongst the all-time greats — even if “ring culture” has made championships an overblown metric for evaluating individual greatness.
Kike García | NBA con Contexto
The New York Knicks.
They fired Tom Thibodeau, a great coach who changed their culture and took them to the conference finals, because that wasn’t good enough. The new coaching staff inherited a roster with Finals-or-bust expectations, set not by media or rivals, but by the organization itself.
Jalen Brunson is elite. The supporting cast is deep. The Garden is electric. But New York doesn’t do moral victories. If this team doesn’t reach the NBA Finals, the roster may get blown up. No pressure, though. It’s just New York.
Jacob Sutton | JSuttHoops
One player who qualifies is not in the playoffs at all: Trae Young.
The Hawks have absolutely surged since removing Trae from the equation behind the efforts of Jalen Johnson and a career-best version of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
And yet, nowhere will the Trae trade be brought up more than in the playoffs, when the Hawks face up against Trae’s old prey, the Knicks. If this Atlanta team can make a surprise run, it puts a lot of reputational pressure on Trae, who has been addition by subtraction lately.
Jeremias Engelmann | 🏀 5x5 | Royce Webb
The Knicks’ entire starting unit will be on the wrong side of 30 before long. And their salary situation and lack of draft picks make it unlikely they’ll be able to add high-impact players without trading away core pieces.
Meanwhile, with Jayson Tatum not yet at full strength and the Pistons having limited playoff experience, this might be the best opportunity for New York to get out of the East.
Why does Daryl Morey get a pass from the national media…???
Has never won anything
Constant drama
Consistent underachieving
Same with his owner Commander Josh…too occupied with his football team to care about the Sixers or his hockey team