13 NBA Takes: What We've Learned This Season
NBA Substack on the epiphanies of the season so far
We asked 13 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What have you learned this season?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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I keep harping on the unending stream of injuries so far this season, which definitely brings me down and makes me worry about the court-coverage demands in the modern game and what they're doing to players' bodies.
Yet this week in particular has reminded this frequent NBA Cup-basher that: I actually do like the Cup once we get to the knockout games. This is what we want more of: Winner-take-all games that hook us because the whole concept is completely different from drawn-out playoff series and thus a source of foreign intrigue for #thisleague.
It's the NBA's ridiculous group stage format that I can't stand: 60 regular-season games that count twice and really just have "tournament" packaging on them but little tournament substance. The perplexing math demands on all of us in the public when trying to figure out all the point differential rules and the sheer havoc the Cup wreaks on the whole schedule for the 22 teams that don't advance to the knockout phase are two more significant issues that need addressing.
Yet seeing how much fun it is when the Hawks stun the Knicks at Madison Square Garden or when the Magic take the Bucks to the wire despite all their injuries β all because so many players want to get to Las Vegas so bad β that is the good stuff. It all just makes me believe even more than the whole tournament should be contested in Vegas over seven to 10 days with nothing but single-elimination in every round.
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I could be snarky and talk about how the new CBA is making everything so difficult with trades now. But instead, Iβll focus on something Iβve relearned this season: Building a good team is hard!
You can do everything correctly, then one misstep can undo years of progress (Wolves, Sixers, Bucks?). Itβs never been about collecting talent. Itβs always been about collecting talent that fits and works together (and stays healthy!).
And now itβs more important than ever that the team is sustainable in this new luxury-tax, tax-apron, hard-cap world.
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I've learned that defense isn't dead. Despite the rampant complaints that teams have just solved offense and there's no going back, the league average offensive rating is down almost 2 points per 100 possessions year over year.
The Thunder, the Rockets, the Magic, Dyson Daniels, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley β¦ There's so much good stuff happening all over the NBA. It's right there to see if you're willing to pay attention to it.
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Despite Charles Barkleyβs refrain that they donβt βhave any idea how to play basketball,β the Houston Rockets have convinced me that even in 2024, an NBA team can be βeliteβ without a true number-one scoring option. This team forced SIX shot clock violations against Golden State on Wednesday, so no, I donβt care that Houstonβs leading scorer shoots 39% from the field. In fact, I think that's kind of cool.
Everyone on Houston plays like they strive to be the best defender on the team β and they might be some nights. When a whole roster is exemplary on defense and sufficient on offense β¦ well, Iβm starting to think thatβs good enough.
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A team's success in the regular season is just as dependent on its worst rotation player as on its best rotation player.
Look at the Nuggets and Bucks: Both teams have one of three best players in the world on their team, and yet they're languishing in mediocrity. Meanwhile, teams like the Grizzlies, Cavaliers, Rockets, and Magic are at or near the top of the standings without a top 10 MVP candidate on their roster.
Having no weak links is the key to churning out regular season wins in 2024.
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I am focussing on something that may become a trend: teams with 12 or 13 players in the rotation. Memphis, Golden State, and Atlanta, for example.
These teams put a lot of energy on the court β they are in the top 10 in deflections, offensive loose balls recovered, and contested shots.
Can a team reach the NBA Finals maintaining those ample rotations in the playoffs? Maybe we'll see it in the next few years.
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One thing Iβve learned: Contrary to recent orthodoxy, you donβt have to trade your superstar, even when he might be frustrated. Donovan Mitchell has been excellent for the league-leading Cavs, sharing the scoring load with Darius Garland and entering Get A Bucket mode when close games call for it.
And yet, I probably wouldβve confidently predicted a year ago now that heβd have forced his way out of town, just like a long procession of stars before him. In the NBA, as in life, patience is a rare virtue indeed.
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Iβve learned that Memphis Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins can make chicken salad out of any number of animalsβ excrement.
Memphis has been a top-five defense in three of the last four years; last year, when they set numerous records for injuries, missed games, and unique starting lineups, they still managed to be in the top half of the league. Jenkins and his staff might be the most unheralded defensive geniuses in the league.
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This season, I've learned that it may finally be time for that generational passing of the mantle in terms of running the league.
There are nine players who are 34 or older scoring at least 16 points per game and all are current/former All-Stars, but none of their teams have home-court advantage in the playoffs right now. The Heat, Warriors and the surprising Clippers are the only ones who would even be safe from the play-in!
Meanwhile, you have teams led by SGA, Tatum, Luka, Brunson, Wagner, and Morant who seem to be solidifying themselves at the top of the league.
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The handoff is the king of the NBA two-man game, especially compared to the pick-and-roll: The top five handoff combinations average 1.34 points per possession, while the top five PnR combos average 1.21, according to Second Spectrum.
Why? Because the handoff allows the player receiving the ball a possible catch-and-shoot 3, and players with more than 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts are shooting 39.3% on those shots. Thatβs significantly better than the 34.3% shooting on off-the-dribble 3s (by players with more than 100 attempts).
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Zach LaVine is now becoming underrated.
NBA players can turn from underrated to overrated and the other way around in a few seasons. I understand that LaVineβs contract (with $43, $46, and $49 million left) and health may be scary for most teams, but this season LaVine is playing very good basketball β with very efficient percentages and within the Bulls system β without ball-hogging.
If heβs auditioning for a future role as the second or third star in a contender, heβs crushing it.
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The thing Iβve learned most this season β and really, itβs just more a refresher β is that a strong defensive identity remains the ultimate trump card for competitive balance. Just in the last few days, weβve watched the Magic, Mavericks, Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, and even the Hawks fight like hell on that end in ways that allowed them to work through spells of bad offense. (Sorry, Milwaukee and New York, but your efforts have been meh, at best.)
We talk so much about the juicing of offenses with the 3-point shot, but we havenβt talked nearly enough about all the defensive countermeasures that coaches are now implementing.
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The main thing I think weβre slowly learning is that superteams that work are the exception to the rule.
The Grizzlies are second in the West despite Santi Aldama being a lead contributor, the Rockets rank third with no clear star outside of Alperen ΕengΓΌn, and the injury-laden Magic, Zombie Heat, and weird-as-heck Hawks are in various parts of the playoff picture in the East.
While the Celtics may continue their dominant ways, their superteam counterparts in the Suns and supposed-to-be-super Nuggets arenβt doing too hot.
I, for one, welcome our new role player overlords.
Awesome read, thanks and have a great new year π
I will have none of the Aldama slander keeping him out of the star category Mr Sutton! π€£