15 Fresh Takes: The NBA Finals ... Going Forward
15 Fresh Takes: The NBA Finals ... Going Forward
NBA Substack on Game 1, and what it means for the series
We asked 15 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What does Game 1 tell us about the Finals going forward?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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That I underestimated just how comfortable Kristaps PorziĆÄŁis is in Boston. No grandiose conclusions about the series after just one game â we don't do that here â but I can't say enough about PorziĆÄŁis' performance. No game action for 38 days? Only the second time in his career coming off the bench? In his first-ever playoff game beyond the first round? And leaving Kyrie Irving in the dust in the race to record the first true Revenge Game in these Finals? Getting traded to this Boston team is the best basketball thing that has ever happened to PorziĆÄŁis.
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There are two obvious takeaways from Game 1 of the Finals.
The first is that Kristaps PorziĆÄŁis looks fantastic coming off of his calf injury recovery. Not only did he hit 3s, but his rim protection was a game-changer for a team known more for its perimeter defense, and he was able to operate in isolation against mismatches for several possessions. All very good signs.
The second is that Boston's defense seems well-equipped to prevent The Other Mavericks from getting anything going. Playing the stars 1-on-1 means fewer easy looks for the bigs rolling and the wings spotting up. Can the Mavs solve that problem?
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The Boston Celtics only need to stay hot for three more games. You can disagree about the long-term strategy of launching the most volatile shot in the game, the 3-pointer, as much as the Celtics do. The thing is, there's no long-term anymore. They just need, well, three more. The Celtics were on fire in Game 1, making 16 3-pointers and flinging up more 3s than 2s. Kristaps PorziĆÄŁis looked awesome â especially from beyond the arc. They're not going to change strategy now and that's probably a good thing.
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I'm going to be extremely pedantic and say that Game 1 tells us that the Celtics are up 1-0. In a playoff series, each game is often a series unto itself. Things that happen in one game don't necessarily carry over to the next, let alone the rest of the series. There are tactical adjustments that need to be made on both sides, of course, and many of them will come as a reaction to what happened in the first game.
But a blowout win is still worth just one win in a series that requires four. There's a long way to go.
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Eventually, having the most good players matters. Boston is so good at reminding opponents that it has an unlimited supply of difference-makers, and itâs always so smug, like, Youâre sick of us? Hereâs Derrick White! Or think youâve got us pinned? Well, Jaylen Brown can become an elite defender whenever he wants.Â
The Celtics are the worldâs best magician who has so many tricks that he forgets the dove is in his hat but still somehow pulls off the trick flawlessly.Â
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What I saw last night is what I expected: a dominant Boston win. But I was among the few with that forecast. The weirdest thing about these NBA playoffs is the drumbeat of anti-Celtics energy from sports experts. Yes, Iâm a sensitive longtime Celtics fan, but even taking a step back, the national commentary feels at odds with stats, Bostonâs record, and just ⊠reality.
I was saying Celtics in five. Now Iâm thinking: Celtics in four. Theyâre going to sweep Dallas, and shut everyone up.
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More than any recent Finals, this series feels more like a 1v1 between GMs than a juicy 30 for 30 documentary.
Give me the Reality Von Tease reveal on Real Housewives of Salt Lake City level of drama!
Itâs not a sexy subject for the mediaâs Hot Take Olympics.Â
We had nine days of âIs Tatum good?â and âNevermind! Antâs not MJ, Luka is!â
The story here is just boring roster construction and we need better producers âŠ
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To me, Game 1 suggests the talent gap many of us thought was there may in fact be real. I never felt as if the Celtics were seriously exerting themselves in this game, and apart from one brief stretch in the third, it was never close. Kyrie was visibly bothered by the Celticsâ guards on the ball, and neither he nor Luka managed to get anyone else involved. Dallas entered the fourth quarter (down 20) with five total assists. Five! As a team! Thatâs not gonna cut it. Boston shouldnât get cocky, but this is about as encouraging a start as Joe Mazzulla and the boys couldâve asked for.Â
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The Celtics were ready for the moment â one thatâs been years in the making â and the Mavericks were not. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have been battling for years for this, Derrick White had a taste the last two seasons, and Jrue Holiday wants to probe that Milwaukee made a big mistake.
The big doubt was PorziĆÄŁis, right? Well, our questions were answered in that first half. The Mavs have to play perfect basketball to match what we saw in Game 1.
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It appears that Dallas does not, in fact, want Boston.
From the very first play of the game we saw just how rabid Boston's fans were. Screaming, heckling, and licking one's metaphorical (and sometimes physical) chops was the norm; Dallas couldn't quite break through. Case in point, the Celtics had no player score 25+ points and still won by 18.
This series will be decided by whether or not Dallas can snatch a win in TD Garden. Without it (and a resurgent Kyrie Irving), their efforts will be futile.
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In many ways, it told us what we all should have known: This Boston team with PorziĆÄŁis is an elite group. The dimensionality he provides on both ends of the floor makes them a matchup nightmare. Offensively, he negates Dallasâs efforts to use offset defensive matchups to hide Luka. Defensively, his rim protection completely eliminated the vertical lob threat that had become the Mavs' bread and butter. His health decides this series.
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Game 1 tells us that Boston is going to live by the 3. The Celtics made seven 3s in the first quarter and 11 in the first half as they were building their huge lead, at one point taking two 3-pointers for every 2-pointer they tried. (They had three or four attempted 3s on one memorable possession during the first half.)
We know this is the Celtics' M.O., as they lead all teams in the playoffs with 48% of their shots coming from downtown, and when it works, they showed they can have Dallas against the ropes quickly. But, as is also their M.O., the Celtics will go cold at times and miss a lot of those 3s, which can let a team back into a lopsided game â as happened in the third quarter of Game 1 for a bit.
Boston is going to do this all series long, because that's who they are as a team, and it's up to the Mavs to do a better job weathering the onslaught and taking advantage of the cold streaks.
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Boston primarily used a defensive switching scheme 1-4 and trusted its individual defense on Luka, who took the bait and concentrated on isolation play. The result? Nine assists as a team, with the lowest assist rate for a team in the playoffs since the NBA-ABA merger, and only three corner 3-pointers attempted. Joe Mazzulla was able to keep the blitz option up his sleeve for future games, and that's something to keep an eye on for the rest of the series.
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The Mavericks will play a lot better in Game 2. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will be better. The scary thing for the Mavs? The Celtics should play better too. Boston had too many unforced turnovers and they missed six free throws. Mostly, this series is a 3-point shooting math test. Boston throws a lot of problems at you, and Dallas doesnât have the answer key.
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Game 1 showed that shot-release speed matters greatly in highly competitive games.
In earlier series, when the stakes weren't quite as high and defenses not as intense, Dallas' shooters had enough time to comfortably get their shots off. Against Boston, though, Dallas' wings struggled from 3, as none of them are particularly quick-release shooters.
Boston, having lost the 2022 Finals to a Warriors team with quick-release shooters, seems to have learned its lesson and is playing several players whose release is so fast, they get decent looks even against a Dallas defense full of long and athletic wing defenders.
I'll first expand on Bob's point below...what I believe is slowly being revealed is that the Western Conference - Minnesota in particular - was overrated by the media. The result is now an over-indexing toward Dallas for having won. What last night illustrated was that Minnesota is a long way from Boston.
While everyone calms their nerves by saying that Dallas always comes back from Game 1, that ignores the fact that Boston might be better too after the long layoff. No person steps in the same stream twice. We'll see.
Additionally, as I've pointed out elsewhere, the Mavs are not great when Luka's ego gets involved and his USG% rises to too high a level. Too much dribbling, not enough separation and passing with less participation by his teammates. The Mavs are much better when he does less...even if he is scoring efficiently. They need other contributions to beat great teams.
I don't know what his USG% was last night, but it was very high as his percentage for the entire Playoffs jumped significantly. Using assists as a rough proxy, he had 1 assist in 38 minutes. When he has ten or more assists, the Mavs are an impressive 95-46, while a mere 39-45 when he dishes five or fewer. One ain't gonna get it done.
I don't buy the post game excuse machine turned to 11 that Boston's defense shut down any other assist opportunities over the course of 38 minutes. I watched the game. Dallas was lower energy with too much standing around by teammates as Luka dribbled around, and a head coach who looked like a statue on the sidelines...reticent to say anything to try and change it up.
The numbers could not be starker. The Mavs need less smirking, less high difficulty shot selection and more distribution from their star player to have a chance.
Can anyone explain how Minnesotas Rudy Gobert is the DPOY. The guy is barely above average.Celtics KP is obviously much better as are almost half the NBAâs starting centers
Bulls back AD is a much better on ball defender and probably a better rim protector. Who ever selected the guy must be relieved on their job immediately. Defensive rating system must be overhauled,