Everyone Loves AJ Dybantsa. My NBA Draft Model Doesn’t.
Dybantsa scores in the 99th percentile for one of the most damaging predictors in my draft model
AJ Dybantsa is the consensus No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, or at worst top three.
He’s got a unique combination of size and scoring ability, and the team that drafts him is likely to thrust him into a high-usage role almost immediately.
But my statistical draft model has doubts. While it agrees with the consensus that this is a very strong draft class, Dybantsa is seen as a very risky pick: He’s about twice as likely as Cam Boozer to become a bust.
Let’s look at some of Dybantsa’s stats — and historical comps — to understand why the model is skeptical.
What is a BUST?
And how many former high draft picks qualify?
 | A guest post by
|