πŸ€ 5x5 | Royce Webb

πŸ€ 5x5 | Royce Webb

Best Path to the NBA Finals for 11 West Contenders β€” and the Playoff Matchups Each Team Should Want (and Avoid)

Here are the most likely Western Conference matchups, and more

Jeremias Engelmann's avatar
Jeremias Engelmann
Apr 04, 2025
βˆ™ Paid
5
2
Share
We might get another LeBron-Steph Curry matchup in Round 1. What are the odds? (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Vegas oddsmakers present a clear picture of the Western Conference playoffs β€” OKC towers over everyone, followed by three playoff-tested teams: the Lakers, Warriors and Nuggets.

But those betting patterns are, to a large extent, based on familiarity. That’s why it’s useful to take a different approach.

To project how the rest of the season β€” including the play-in and playoffs β€” will go, I’ve run 10,000 simulations based on the actual strength of each team. Below are the results β€” including the key games remaining for each team.

I’m also providing the most likely path to the NBA Finals for each team, plus the matchups that each team will want … or want to avoid.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
Jeremias Engelmann's avatar
A guest post by
Jeremias Engelmann
Basketball analyst. Creator of ESPN's Real Plus-Minus. Formerly with the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks
Subscribe to Jeremias
Β© 2025 Royce Webb
Privacy βˆ™ Terms βˆ™ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture