HIGH STAKES: NBA Superstars & Teams with the Most to Gain — and Lose — This Week
13 Substack writers on a make-or-break week for stars and teams in the NBA Play-In Tournament
We asked 13 leading NBA voices on Substack to rank the top three for this question:
For which (3) teams or players would advancement from the NBA Play-In Tournament mean the most?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
Disaster rankings
| I'm going to go:
Lakers
Heat
76ers
And my interpretation of "mean the most" basically boils down to: For whom would failure to advance out of the PIT be most disastrous?
The Pelicans, Kings and Warriors, of course, will all feel a great sting (and shame) if they don't advance, but it would be a more serious reputational hit for LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers (maybe most perilous for Lakers coach Darvin Ham) to fall short.
Ditto for Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and #heatculture.
And while expectations might be lowered slightly in theory in Philadelphia because Joel Embiid lost half the season to injury, I suspect the reaction would be well shy of kind in the City of Brotherly Love if the Sixers were to lose two in a row this week.
PS — Zion Williamson could have easily landed in my top three because he still hasn't appeared in a real playoff game and is at risk for extending that streak to five seasons and counting if the Pelicans don't go at least 1-1 this week.
Marc Stein on This Week in Basketball | Play-In Tournament
Steph, Sixers, & Bron
| 1. Stephen Curry. It felt like Draymond Green's ejection at Orlando foretold the end of the Warriors as we know it. That's why I think Curry got so emotional. But if the Warriors can punch their ticket, they can live to see another day together. Missing the playoffs after all Steph did this season would be basketball tragedy.
2. Philadelphia. It would mean that Embiid returning from injury this season was not all for naught. Now, I will still cringe every time he falls on the floor or drives into traffic. For a guy who clearly hated being hurt, making the postseason would make the speedy timetable all worthwhile.
3. LeBron James. The playoffs just aren't the same without LeBron and the Lakers. Truthfully, if the Lakers move on, it would mean the most to the NBA's bottom line. It's true: Cash rules everything around us!
Zion, JoJo, & Jimmy Buckets
| 1. Zion Williamson. The "not one playoff game" tweets would be deserved. He is running out of the good will of the basketball public.
2. Joel Embiid. Joel is 30. At some point the "bad injury luck" excuse stops working. He needs an ECF run at least.
3. Jimmy Butler. I am introducing THE JIMMY BUTLER RULE: You don't get to be too cool for the regular season if you don't have a ring.
Curry, Maxey, & the Pels
| 1. The Warriors. After one of the toughest seasons of the entire Curry era — between the midseason death of Dejan Milojević, Draymond's multiple suspensions, and barely making the play-in — a trip to the playoffs proper would be special.
2. The 76ers, and specifically Tyrese Maxey. Maxey deserves a chance to be Joel Embiid's playoff running mate, possibly succeeding where Ben Simmons/James Harden/et al. failed.
3. The Pelicans. For a team that seldom makes any noise, New Orleans has a very good ensemble cast of players who might just put a scare into OKC or Denver.
The Embiid era, a cute story … & the Lakers
| 1. Joel Embiid: It's insane that the Embiid era has not advanced further than the Doug Collins era. Joel is 30 and when he's healthy is debatably the best player in the league. Time to do it in the playoffs.
2. The Kings: Cute story turns into big disappointment pretty quick. Kings were fun last year. This year they have to prove there is something real there.
3. L.A. Lakers: Just kidding. Who cares? Enough already.
Rescue missions: L.A., Philly, and Sacramento
| Lakers
Sixers
Kings
As we saw on Sunday, LeBron just hits different in high-stakes games. While a battle with the defending champs sounds like an awful prize for winning a play-in game, getting to the postseason is the minimum viable result for a team as talented at the top as the Lakers. Darvin Ham's seat must be warm in any case; it'd catch on fire if the Lakers fall short here.
Joel Embiid's Sixers, meanwhile, just want a chance to show what they could have been before his injury.
The Kings can rescue a disappointing finish by slipping in and spooking a Thunder team they've played pretty well this season. The absence of Malik Monk makes it a much more difficult path.
How to dispel doubts
| 1. Joel Embiid. Time is ticking for the 30-year-old. He's not in an ideal situation, but if the 76ers win on Wednesday, they have a path to the Eastern Conference finals. History suggests he might never have a better opportunity to put a stamp on the postseason.
2. Tyler Herro. The narrative is that Herro is inessential to — or worse, hindering — the Heat's success. He has a chance to rewrite that story, but the Heat must first escape the play-in.
3. Domantas Sabonis. Domas has put up eye-bursting counting stats, but his mixed playoff performances have many doubting whether he can contribute to high-level basketball.
Chances are … waning
| The Philadelphia 76ers are the top team on the list. If Joel Embiid is healthy, the Sixers can make a run to the Eastern Conference finals. That’s huge for now and for team building moving forward.
The Los Angeles Lakers have to get through the PIT. Who knows how many more chances LeBron James has at this?
The Golden State Warriors are in the same spot, but with Stephen Curry.
What this week says about LeBron’s future
| Lakers
Sixers
Pelicans
The Lakers, in my mind, would have the most “phew” value should they advance. They are simultaneously a team with the most to gain as well as the most to lose, and it all centers around the obvious: LeBron James.
James’ player option will be the talk of the town during this year’s playoffs, as an early loss would potentially give him reason to seek greener (and less purple and gold) pastures, while a deeper run could mean ending his career with LA.
Time is tight
| I'll go with the (1) Lakers, (2) the Warriors, and (3) Joel Embiid.
All for the same reason: Time.
LeBron James does not have that many seasons left in his career. Neither does the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green-Klay Thompson trio, if they even have any beyond this year.
You never know how long Embiid's body will hold up. Every chance at a playoff run is one that needs to be capitalized on when you are in such a situation.
Zion, Sac, & Trae
| 1. Zion Williamson. Zion did what we asked him to do this season. He was healthier, created better for others, and didn’t have any controversy. And nobody cared. He has to do it in his first NBA playoffs.
2. Sacramento Kings. "Hey guys, we're still here! We promise, we would be fun to watch in the playoffs!"
3. Trae Young. This is Trae’s vindication. He’s in a lot of rumors now; he’s been doubted. Young needs to remind us what “Playoff Trae” is.
The can that can no longer be kicked
| New Orleans Pelicans
Joel Embiid
The Warriors Dynasty
New Orleans has been kicking the can down the road for a few years — we’ve excused it because of all the injuries to important players. Now, the team is healthy, so … they gotta win.
If Embiid and the Sixers want this to be “the year,” they have to start by beating Miami — comfortably.
Is Golden State still a dynasty? Not sure. But I’d be comfortable saying “no” if the Dubs get sent home on Tuesday.
Promise, a test … and a potential surprise
| 🏀 5x5 | Royce WebbChicago: There is one team that, if it goes past the play-in, might itself be shocked after years of mediocrity. If Chicago makes it through Atlanta and Miami/Philly, Ayo Dosunmu will talk trash confidently, but the Bulls will mostly be surprised.
New Orleans: So much promise in their talent, but so little track record. This is their chance to start one.
Sacramento: This is a real test of their process. The Kings can showcase their talent … and try to avoid the COY jinx that happens a year or two after winning.
Loved this Royce, so interesting to read all these different perspectives.