NBA Draft Analysis: Has Keaton Wagler Passed Mikel Brown Jr. as a Lottery Prospect?
Two tall guards likely to be high draft picks, but with significant differences
I’ve done deep dives on nine of the top NBA prospects, from Darryn Peterson to Kingston Flemings.
Let’s take a closer look at two of the most exciting draft prospects: Keaton Wagler and Mikel Brown Jr., who are battling for a mid-lottery spot this June.
Here are my evaluations of these two guards, using stats and video:
Keaton Wagler
Illinois
Freshman
Shooting guard
6’6” | 185 lbs
Age on draft night: 19.4 years
What works for Wagler
Five weeks ago, I covered the incredible quality at the top of this draft class:
This is the Greatest Top 5 in NBA Draft History, According to Advanced Stats
The 2026 draft is shaping up to be an extraordinarily talented one, particularly at the top.
The five freshman who made the list had a Box Plus-Minus (BPM) of 12 or better. Keaton Wagler didn’t make it then — but he would now. That’s how strongly he’s progressed this season as a draft prospect.
Wagler’s BPM has seen significant improvement, all the way up to 13. As a reference point, that puts Wagler ahead of AJ Dybantsa in BPM, although not on most draft boards.
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