NBA Finals Predictions!
11 Substack writers, and a split decision on who takes the title
We asked 11 leading NBA voices on Substack for their โฆ
NBA Finals Predictions
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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This Dallas squad will seem like an All-Star team compared to the opponents that Boston has faced thus far.
Mavericks in 7.
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I took the Celtics before the season, then cowardly switched my pick to the Nuggets before the playoffs. So, I'm mostly just going back to my original pick here.
But the pick is also a bet on the power of offensive flexibility and defensive infrastructure, and perhaps against clutch-time narratives at the same time.
Celtics in 6.
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The Dallas Mavericks are on a roll. Their confidence is at an all-time high and Luka Donฤiฤ believes he could beat a mix of the 1992 Dream Team and the Monstars.
Boston is the favorite, and deservedly so, with its two stars and a great six-player rotation. But Dallasโ defense has found an answer to every problem, and the Mavs have the best player in the series โ and maybe even in the world right now.
Mavericks in 6.
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This is one of the more narratively-packed Finals matchups of recent times: Kyrie Irving vs. the entire city of Boston, Kristaps Porziลฤฃis vs. the Mavs, Jayson Tatum vs. the unclutch narrative, and more. Itโs potentially a climax after the perpetual heartbreak of the Celticsโ recent postseason woes, while Luka Donฤiฤ gets a chance to put his stamp on history.
Welcome to the NBA Finals, yโall.
Celtics in 6.
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Dallas has already surprised us data-inclined folks by emerging from a Western Conference that contained so many higher-rated teams on paper. But if you trust the numbers, you have to take a Boston team that has been the league's best from wire-to-wire and could finish off a championship season that would at least belong on the list of the most dominant ever.
Celtics in 5.
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What a dreary Finals. I'm happy for Luka Donฤiฤ to get to this stage, but it's difficult for me to overlook the issues both teams bring with them: Kristaps Porziลฤฃis' unresolved allegations of sexual assault and Jason Kidd's history of IPV within an organization with a history (from sexual harassment to violence against women) of being a toxic workplace for women.
I'm not so naรฏve to think all contenders are morally "good,โ but winning โ especially titles โ tends to overwrite the harmful parts of NBA history, and I'm not looking forward to that.
Mavericks in 6.
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Nothing would make me happier than seeing my fellow countryman Neemias Queta get a ring, but I believe the Mavericks are a bad matchup for the Celtics.
Dallas has the best player in the series, and its second option is undoubtedly the best ballhandler ever to pick up a basketball, arguably the best closer in the game and definitely the most motivated guy on the court, while the C's will have the pressure of being heavy favorites as a result of an incredible regular season. If the Mavs can split the first two in Boston, Kyrie could get his revenge.
Mavericks in 6.
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Boston hasn't been tested is the narrative, but Dallas hasn't seen an offense-defense combo like the Celtics either. The wave of defenders Boston can throw at Luka Donฤiฤ and Kyrie Irving will be the difference. The Mavericks will find points harder to come by than the Celtics will.
If Kristaps Porziลฤฃis canโt go, this might be a different story. If he plays, Boston seals a historic season with Banner 18.
Celtics in 5.
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I want to say something smart, but honestly, these two teams have both exploited mismatches perfectly, both teamsโ stars have delivered punches, both teamsโ role players have delivered, and both teams have been tremendous defensively throughout the playoffs. Assuming Porziลฤฃis can return, both teams should also be healthy, which is great for everyone involved.
Itโs a toss-up, but Iโll side with the Mavs because of Luka, who is the best player in this series.
Mavericks in 7.
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You probably could have convinced me that Dallas would make the Finals, but it would have taken a while. Iโm, frankly, stunned the Mavs are the team that survived the buzzsaw out West.
Unfortunately โฆ I donโt think they finish the job. Boston has been pretty consistent in its dominance all year, and I think all their flaws have been exaggerated because weโre searching so hard for flaws. Cโs win it.
Celtics in 6.
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The thing is, I would've felt irrationally confident in picking the Nuggets to beat this Celtics team handily. My reasoning? Late-game execution.
You can make a similar case for the Mavericks, who are the ones who made it out of the West, after all. And I don't fully trust this Boston team, despite all the numbers suggesting I should. If Porziลฤฃis is healthy, though โ an admittedly big if โ the Celtics have the horses to win this thing. The Wolves didn't have a Luka stopper, because that doesn't exist, but they barely had a slower. By my count, the Celtics have three, and one of them is also part of an all-world defensive guard pairing to throw at Kyrie.
That's a lot of work for P.J. Washington and Co. I won't be at all shocked if Dallas comes through on their two stars' brilliance, but I'll take the collective talent in Boston at home in Game 7.
Celtics in 7.
Final tally
Celtics: 6
Mavericks: 5
Most frequent picks: Celtics in 6 and Mavericks in 6, predicted by three writers each.
Thanks to Katie for the reminder about Jason Kidd's intimate partner violence issues. I'd completely forgotten about that. Obviously, some male athletes have always been abusive, but it was easier to root for my teams when I was ignorant of athletes' abusive behavior (which is NOT to say that I'm sorry allegations and crimes are being reported--that is unequivocally a salutary development).
A personal aside on sports predictions. Personally, I've never understood the "well, I predicted Kenosha in August, so I guess I'll stick with them" line of reasoning. Why would you stick with an older preseason analysis made with minimal supporting data instead of looking at the use case in front of you now along with the benefit of a ton of recent relevant data? Always puzzling to me, but I digress.
As for this choice, are we that confident that Minnesota was a true test for Dallas to avoid recency bias? It was their first time deeper than the first round in a while, and this morning trade rumors for Towns are flying. If true, that would suggest the team is already looking to reshape its core. Certainly not a confidence builder. So, I'm not sure that Minnesota wasn't spent and left it all on the floor in Denver.
In any event, a best-of-seven series usually favors the stronger and deeper team. I would feel comfortable picking Boston here.