Predictions! 13 Writers on a Boston vs. Denver NBA Finals
Predictions! 13 Writers on a Boston vs. Denver NBA Finals
NBA Substack weighs in: If the East and West favorites meet in June, who takes the chip?
The Boston Celtics and the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are favored to meet in the NBA Finals, and they face off Thursday night in Denver.
So we asked a baker’s dozen writers …
Boston-Denver NBA Finals: Who wins?
Check out their predictions and subscribe!
Proven vs. Prove It
| I wrote many, many words the other day marveling at the regular season that the Celtics have assembled. Apart from a run at the Warriors' historic 73-9 mark, it has pretty much everything else.
And yet I still can't bring myself to pick Boston to beat Denver in a seven-game series. Nuggets in 6.
My faith in Nikola Jokić and his partnership with Jamal Murray and the fact that Denver is that rare entity in today's NBA that has proven it can get it done — all wrapped up with ongoing skepticism I can't shake about the Celtics until they finally show us on the most exalted of stages that they're ready to hush the doubters — permit me no other conclusion.
Tatum Factor
| Denver in 6. I don't trust the Boston Celtics’ offense down the stretch. They're one of the worst teams at finding easy buckets in crunchtime, getting downhill, and trusting teammates.
And there's plenty of evidence to suggest that Jayson Tatum is the worst clutch scorer among All-NBA types.
Boston by the Numbers
| If it comes down to a Celtics-Nuggets collision course, the "stats-only" version of my forecast model thinks Boston would be favored with a 64.6% chance of winning — the most likely results being Boston in 5 (19.1%) or Boston in 7 (18.7%).
Maybe that sounds surprising, since Denver is the defending champ — and the Nuggets missed playing Boston in the Finals only because the Celtics dug a 3-0 ECF hole for themselves against an 8-seed. But then again, this Celtics team looks like one of the best ever ... on paper.
A New Dynasty
| The teams split the first two games. Next: BOS wins two, at DEN, to stun the world (including themselves). Then: As BOS tends to do when the world loves them most, they lose (Game 5).
Coach Mazz is now appalled in the zen way that most inspires his ball club. Tatum’s fury fuels him to a performance equally historic from 3, and in the paint. Porziņģis channels Thor. Brown plays with the mamba-ness of the NBA’s 6’6” brotherhood, while Holiday, White, and Horford swashbuckle through every possession.
Celtics win Game 6 by 8+. The dawn of a new dynasty.
The Call Has Been Reversed
| Before the start of the season, I predicted that the Celtics would beat the Nuggets in the NBA Finals. I'm reversing that prediction here.
I just have far too much trust in Denver's core group of players to pick against them in any series — even in one against a team that has looked like the best in the league for the significant majority of this season. Nuggets in 7.
Trust Issues
| It's not that I don't trust the facts — first and second overall in offensive and defensive rating, respectively; a 48-13 record as I'm writing this — I do. It's that I don't really trust the Celtics.
This is a group that for years has run icily dominant and then, come the playoffs, become unravelled. It's hard to win in the postseason. Hard to get close and fall away that many times, harder still to examine why it happened after it does.
I'm not sure Boston has looked in the mirror at what's outdone them: clinging too tight to their rudimentary mechanics when they fail and, if I can be so bold, taking themselves too seriously. I don't mean you have to be goofy to win, but the Heat, and the Warriors before them, toyed with Boston's severity. Denver (stoic and funny) will do the same, and I think it should take six games.
The Odds Say One Thing, but …
| The Nuggets opened as a 1.5-point home underdog, which shows the respect oddsmakers have for Boston.
The Celtics are in rarified air with their average margin of victory (11.2-point differential), but the Nuggets are still the champs and have Nikola Jokić (the favorite to win MVP for the third time) — and I don’t think Boston can stop him.
I like the Nuggets in six games.
Joker = Mathemagician
| The Celtics have the most talented roster since the Curry-Durant Warriors, and they will almost certainly have home-court advantage. So why am I picking Denver in 7?
The shuffling, steamrolling Jokić is the ultimate playoff mathemagician. Boston is as equipped as any team to attack him on both sides, but it’s not enough.
Draymond Green famously said, “There are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players.” Jokić is a two-time (and counting) regular-season MVP, and I’d still put him in the latter category.
Inevitability Is the Best Ability
| This is an “unstoppable force meets immovable object” question, but I have to go with the unstoppable force: The Celtics are going to win this in 5 games.
On top of dominating almost every advanced metric (take a look), they are the most complete team. The Brown/Tatum combo is one of the — if not the — most lethal one-two punches this season. Plus, you’ve got third, fourth, and fifth punches in Kristaps Porziņģis, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday.
Like Thanos, this leprechaun squad is inevitable.
Fun in 7
| Oh man, this would be such a fun series: Nikola Jokić’s traveling circus carousel vs. Boston’s defense, and the Celtics’ fine-tuned offensive motion countering Denver’s untraditional defensive schemes.
I think that Nuggets defense could defuse the all-time-efficient Kristaps Porziņģis, and I'd trust the Joker and Jamal Murray more to find a way when the going gets tough and the game is on the line.
Denver in 7.
Machine Learning
| | The OptionSorry, Simmons. I just don't know that I see it. The Celtics are phenomenally talented, but even if we assume everyone's healthy — and with Porziņģis, we can't — I'll take the Jokić machine.
I trust Denver to manufacture better shots in crunch time, and to have answers when the 3s aren't falling. It's always tempting to overcomplicate these things, but Jokić will be the best player in the series.
For that reason, Nuggets in six.
Celts Take Title 18
| As a Boston Celtics fan, I'd like to say: No excuses. This is the year we break through and the Tatum/Brown era gets validated, after years of harsh criticism.
Medal or bust, as the Australian Boomers said in the Sydney 2000 Olympics! (Granted, we're talking about a trophy here.)
Denver knows what it takes to get that championship ring; their stellar late-game execution puts the Nuggets in good stead. But: Celtics in seven.
Tatum’s Time
| Boston wins in 7 games. Boston doesn't have anyone with the otherworldly talent of Jokić, which makes this prediction scary. But it's not as though Steph, LeBron, and Jokić have won every title the last nine years — just seven of them.
In the others, Kawhi and Giannis led their teams to titles, and that's about where Jayson Tatum is.
The Celtics’ and Nuggets’ starting units are pretty comparable, but Denver's bench is missing its Brown energy, which matters.
So the final tally is:
Boston: 5 votes
Denver: 8 votes
A solid split!
I think both teams will bring it tonight in Denver, hopefully. As the certified #1 Nuggets fan of Substack, I will be talking trash in the Substack sports chat tonight. My prediction is that the Boston doesn't make the finals and the Nuggets repeat...but if they do meet in the finals, I think it is a 7 game series and Tatum misses a final shot in overtime...nuggs in 7 by 1 point.