The Mavs Almost Traded for Tyrese Haliburton — Here’s Why, and Why It Didn't Work
Our draft model identified Haliburton as our top target in 2020. Here is how statistical models work, and why they saw Hali as an elite talent.
The Eastern Conference finals feature two superstar point guards — a former Dallas Maverick and one who almost became a Maverick. So, as a former analyst for the Mavs, I’ve been reminiscing quite a bit while watching Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton … and what might have been.
There was a time not too long ago when the Mavericks were so much into analytics that they had not just one but two distinct analytics departments.
From 2019 to 2022, I was part of the one named “Research and Development.”
Just like any other NBA analytics department, we ran a number of statistical models for the draft.
These statistical models weren’t perfect by any stretch, but they tended to outperform the actual draft order in accurately identifying players. They often flagged underrated players who would go on to significantly outperform their draft slot — Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green and Tari Eason are just three examples.
And in 2020, our models flagged Haliburton, who just five years later is on the verge of leading his team to the NBA Finals.
So what makes Haliburton great, how were statistical models able to predict his future impact back in 2020, and why did we try — and fail — to acquire him?
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