Upside Rankings: How I See the Top 30 NBA Draft Prospects and Their Potential

Let's put on rose-colored glasses and be a little more optimistic with our projections

Khaman Maluach, Ace Bailey (21), V. J. Edgecombe, and Cooper Flagg (right) are projected as lottery picks. But what’s their true upside? See below. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

The draft is ruled by probabilities — especially when you work in an NBA front office, as I did from 2019 to 2022.

What are the chances a player becomes a good 3-point shooter? That he improves his handles? Can he be taught to defend better? Will he add muscle without getting slower?

For the most part, NBA decision-makers want to take players with the highest average outcome.

But there are exceptions: Rebuilding teams tend to look more at pure upside.

So today, I’m ranking players by their ceiling — my optimistic projection for each player.

Here is the question I’m answering for each prospect: What if he gets drafted into the perfect situation? In other words, what if he lands in the right spot, with the best coaching for him and the ideal opportunity?

Let's see how our Big Board looks like after a large gulp of Kool-Aid: