17 NBA Finals Predictions: If Boston & Denver Are Ousted, Who Are the New Champs?
Upsets happen ... 17 Substack writers reveal their 7(!) teams in line for the NBA title if the two favorites are eliminated
Few predicted the 2023 NBA Finals matchup would be Miami vs. Denver.
But thatβs exactly what we got.
In that spirit, we asked 17 leading NBA voices on Substack these questions:
If neither Boston nor Denver makes the NBA Finals β¦
Who plays in the Finals? And who wins?
Check out their predictions and subscribe!
Forecast: Lots of Heat, Some Thunder
| Miami over OKC. A rematch of the 2012 NBA Finals, anyone? Sign me up!
IΒ think I might pick Miami over Boston in a seven-game series anyway. If Khris Middleton'sΒ knee straightens out, I'd think long and hard about choosing Doc's current squad over his former one (Philly, too!).
Deer Revival
| The Bucks were my preseason pick to win the East. What we're starting to see from them under Doc Rivers, without even having a healthy Khris Middleton, suggests that the Boston/Milwaukee showdown so many projected back in October for the Eastern Conference finals is indeed where we're headed.
In the West? I know this answer doesn't really rise to the spirit of the question, but Denver is the only team in the top 10 that strikes me as capable of winning three playoff rounds. Maybe that viewpoint will be amended come mid-April, but I can't yet conceive of a non-Nuggets scenario in the Finals.Β
Process Payoff
| Itβll play out like a mid movie directed by Ben Affleck: Joel Embiid returns heroically from injury right before the playoffs and Silences The Criticsβ’. The Embiid/Tyrese Maxey two-man game looks like JokiΔ/Murray.Β
The Clippers get to their first Finals, but Harden does a Harden, Kawhi misses two games, PG hits the side of the backboard and Russ is their best player.Β Β
Ballmer opens his fancy arena hanging a Western Conference Champions banner and gets some choice words from Lakers fans.
Youth Is Served
| If the Celtics somehow lose an East series, it will be to Giannis. At times, we all know, he vaporizes those between him and the rim.Β
In the West, my sober-minded partner David Thorpe would discuss the Clippers, but my answer is Thunder Thunder Thunder. They have the second-best record in the league with an average age so young almost everyoneβs due to improve.
Since OKC has come this far, why not? By June, theyβll be not just younger than Milwaukee, but likely healthier.
Wine-and-Gold Rings
| In the subset of simulations (31.7%) that didn't feature either Boston or Denver making the Finals, the most common matchups were Cleveland vs OKC (11.2% of sims with neither BOS nor DEN),Β Cleveland vs Minnesota (8.3%) andΒ Milwaukee-OKC (6.7%).
If we take the first one, Cavs-Thunder, Cleveland would be narrow favorites (51.5%) despite OKC probably having home-court advantage due to the better record.
In that Finals matchup, the most likely outcome would be a Cavs win in 6 games (18.2%) β¦ followed by a Thunder win in 7 (17.1%).
Betting Bucks
| I have to go with the Bucks in the East and in the Finals.
Every other non-Celtics team out there is falling apart, injury-wise, and the combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard is tough to beat across seven games.
In the West ... I'm rolling with the Thunder. Yes, really. I know they're young and inexperienced and they can't rebound, but that is not a fatal flaw, and I just don't trust the Clippers or Wolves.Β
Wolves Take Wing
| Before Russell Westbrook got hurt (and I know he's reported to want to come back for the playoffs, but he also just had his hand cut open), I would've asked the rhetorical question of whether we deserve the fun of a Clippers-Cavaliers Finals.
Because my most closely guarded dreams have been dashed β and I now feel, thanks to the cruel clarity that nothing is promised in this universe, free to really let my most deranged inclinations run wild β we absolutely deserve a Timberwolves-Cavaliers Finals, assuming KAT can return in a few weeks.
There are plenty of more logicalΒ scenarios, like why would the Nuggets succumb all of a sudden to pressure, and that the Cavs feel ripe to be flummoxed by the Heat again, but I'm firmly in the camp that logical Finals (ironic, I know, when contributing to an exercise predicting the Finals) don't shake up and push and force accelerated evolution enough in basketball.
Fish came out of the water, dinosaurs got feathers, why can't Wolves fly?Β
Clippers At Last
| In the event that both Boston and Denver do not make it to the NBA Finals, my top picks to compete for the championship would be the Clippers and the Bucks.Β
Iβd personally love to see a Finals showdown between two of the biggest names who changed teams last offseason, James Harden and Damian Lillard.
This could be the season LA is at full strength, and a matchup between the Clippers and a team led by Doc Rivers would add an intriguing storyline to the Finals. In that case, I would expect the Clippers to pull it out.
OKC KOs Cavs
| I wonβt live scared any longer β Oklahoma City will beat Cleveland in the NBA Finals.
The more I watch, the fewer reasons I find to bet against the Thunder. Theyβre elite defensively, employ a superstar (plus two emerging stars), shoot better than everyone, and have numerous role players who have perfected their respective niches.
Fans claim that young teams donβt make postseason runs, but β¦ are young teams ever this good?
Kawhiβs Third Title
| If weβre taking the favorites out of the mix, Iβll go with the LA Clippers over the Milwaukee Bucks in seven games. I trust the Bucks the most in the Eastern Conference, only because the Miami Heat making low-seed runs has to end eventually β¦ right?
As for the Clippers: If not now, when? Theyβve got the talent, and hopefully the health, to finally break through to win the Finals.
Bucks Repeat (Three Years Later)
| Yes, the Thunder are for real. The lack of rebounding may hurt them in some matchups, but their half-court offense is very transferable to the playoffs.
Doc Rivers finally has the Bucksβ defense on track, and Lillard is the offensive firepower they need when the game is on the line.
Milwaukee wins. This is where the lack of experience finally gets the Thunder.
Heat Rise Again
| Heat over Thunder in 7.
Look, do I think this is likely? Of course not. But Denver and Boston are such overwhelming favorites in my mind that if neither makes the Finals, something has gone as pear-shaped as a Botero painting.
And if weβre talking chaos, Jimmy Butler seems the likely agent. Out West, nobody has been able to solve OKCβs unconventional two-way play. A rematch of the 2012 NBA Finals is as plausibly unlikely as anything else.
Jimmy Gets His Ring
| Iβm fully prepared to see the lowest-scoring Finals series of this century. Bring on a Heat versus Timberwolves slugfest.
The Wolves are first in defensive rating and are an easy contender choice, while the Heat are β¦ Jimmy Butlerβs team. Neither team has a top-15 offensive rating, but you could inject the theoretical into my bloodstream.
In a fairytale ending, the Heat win it all, and Jimmy can ride off into the Vice City sunset like the emo cowboyΒ that heΒ is.
LA Love
| If everyone is healthy, I believe the Clippersβ experience and solid perimeter D will give trouble to every team in the West, and their ISO game is elite.
The Sixers with Embiid have the best odds of knocking the Celtics.
In that case, Iβd give the title nod to the Clippers, whose X-factor in the title run would be Ivica Zubac. (Personal bias aside, heβs seriously underrated.)
Bucks in Six
| | The OptionHow about Bucks-Thunder? Aging pedigree vs. the young guns!
The Bucks are the second-oldest team in the association, the Thunder are the third-youngest, and they're second and first in their respective conferences, so this matchup isn't exactly a leap.
Still feels a little surprising though, no? What with the abrupt coaching change in Milwaukee, and the Bright Future Thunder suddenly looking awfully Bright Present?
Last time the Thunder arrived early, they ran into a buzzsaw. Without a real center, think they might again. Bucks in six.Β
Thunder Take the 2012 Rematch
As an Australian, it would be easy to be biased β¦ so thatβs exactly what Iβll do.
Oklahoma City has a top-five offence and defence, and Josh Giddey is slowly finding form; Miami adds certified bucket-getter Patty Mills to a team that always lifts its game in the playoffs.
Iβd have the Thunder winning that series, but letβs be honest β a Finals run would just be a tune-up for the main event in Paris.
Roller Coaster Ride
| Not trying to jinx them, but the Clippers will come back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Thunder in the West, then come back from a 2-0 deficit in the NBA Finals β¦ only for LA to lose to the Cavs when one of the Clippersβ Big 3 pulls a hamstring β¦ only to say that someone jinxed them again.
(If you can't make an accurate prediction, make a wild one.)
I only began following basketball this season- I'm loving it!! - so articles like this really help me dive into the league-wide storylines!
IF......*IF* ..:Randle and Anunoby return for post season, I'll pick New York. Boston chokes....bucks are fragile....defense has questions. If IF IF middleton is full strength, then maybe. Cavs though.....a dean wade MVP eastern win for JB. I simply cannot see anyone beating Denver if Jokic is healthy. If not, then I guess OKC.....because clippers wont do it. No team with harden wins a title.