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🏀 5x5 | Royce Webb

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🏀 5x5 | Royce Webb
Ranking the West Playoff Contenders at FULL STRENGTH — Based on Advanced Stats

Ranking the West Playoff Contenders at FULL STRENGTH — Based on Advanced Stats

The REAL Western Conference standings, and what to expect for playoff matchups

Jeremias Engelmann's avatar
Jeremias Engelmann
Feb 19, 2025
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🏀 5x5 | Royce Webb
🏀 5x5 | Royce Webb
Ranking the West Playoff Contenders at FULL STRENGTH — Based on Advanced Stats
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Jimmy Butler adds a dimension to the Warriors and the West playoff race. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)


The Western Conference has a new look after the trade deadline, with multiple massive deals and win-now moves.

You might have heard that Luka’s with the Lakers now.

Let’s look ahead to the rest of the season and the postseason, and answer these questions:

  1. Were the big trades enough to push these teams into the playoffs?

  2. What’s the postseason outlook for each team in terms of seeding, matchups, and opportunities to advance?

For the projections, I’m using xRAPM and shorter rotations of the type we usually see in the postseason.

I simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times, taking into account each team’s estimated “full strength” (if healthy), its strength of schedule and its number of home and away games.

The rankings below are for the full-strength versions of the top 12 teams.

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A guest post by
Jeremias Engelmann
Basketball analyst. Creator of ESPN's Real Plus-Minus. Formerly with the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks
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